During January we will review the upcoming legislative agenda and try to understand the economics behind the economy without the sensationalism of the headlines.
As an introduction to this we discussed the timetable of the legislature session and some of the existing information that has been available from the State departments to set the stage.
As we all now know, there will be a new Speaker in the Texas House and a new President in the White House. As I noted in the introduction Sunday I am hoping it is only serendipity and not prophesy that my radio was tuned to a station I do not normally listen to and played the Who's classic song "We Won't Get Fooled Again" (Meet the new boss same as the old boss....)
Topics:
State Controller's Report - A preview of the issues to be addressed in the actual report to the Leg that will set the budget http://www.texasahead.org/economy/outlook.html Overall Texas sounds pretty good compared to the nation. We know the Governor believes TX does not need support from the stimulus. We'll see what the numbers turn up. Do we think its all OK? The answer is no. Here are the notes we discussed.
(1) Jobs -
(a) US Job losses in Nov 524,000 – Texas gained 7,300
(2) Housing “Texas “has avoided the boom and bust cycle” of others
(3) Oil & Natural Gas
(a) Futures at $41.70 $103.61 below the peak price
(b) FY 2008 Tax collections from oil up 72%
(c) 2009???
(4) Fuel Prices
(a) Gas Tax Revenue decreased by 0.7 % in Nov
(b) Oct 08 miles driven down 2.8%
(5) Sales Tax Receipts
(a) Nov 08 up 4.7% vs. 07
(b) State sales tax for FY 2009 up 4.5% so far
(c) Motor vehicle Sales Tax collections down
(6) Consumer Confidence down 45%
2. There is a recurring theme from the State Demographer http://txsdc.utsa.edu/download/pdf/presentations/2008_12_11_TASSCC_State_of_the_State.pdf that emphasizes the need to improve education to close the income disparity between anglos and non-anglos. As the trends indicate that anglos will loose majority status between 2014 and 2020 and by 2040 Latinos will be the majority ethnic background. We discussed this with our Breakthrough Austin www.breakthroughaustin.org presentation.
We questioned whether education will really be addressed in the Leg.
3. Finally, The Comptroller's office also addresses education as a priority, particularly emphasizing the need to support CTE (career and technical education). The report discussing this is found at:
http://www.window.state.tx.us/specialrpt/workforce/PDF/09_Steps.pdf
With so much to do we look forward to the New Year with anticipation
No comments:
Post a Comment